More details on AKB48 World Senbatsu General Election have been announced! This year it will be held on June 16th at Nagoya Dome. The election will determine the members who will participated in AKB48's 53rd single.
HKT48 announced details for their 10th single on Showroom Live today. While the title and cover are still in the works, we do know the release date and the senbatsu lineup for their upcoming single!
AKB48 49th Single Senbatsu Sousenkyo (SSK) has come to a wild ending. While the weather outside in Okinawa may have almost cancelled the main event, it didn’t stop from the show going on. This year was filled with savage drops and boost in rankings, shocking announcements, and a win that will go down in AKB48 history. Let’s nutshell it all up and talk about the memorable highlights.
What a night. The Sousenkyo is over, and what a night it was, filled with surprises, broken records, and cameo appearances. A new 48G champion has been crowned the Sousenkyo pennant, and all sorts of new members ranked for the first time. This is an article based on the takeaways from this year’s Sousenkyo. It is a bit of an opinion piece based on my observations. So if I manage to anger a select few, my apologies. Let’s dive right in at the takeaways from a night filled with surprise. Welcome Back Suuchan I will admit that 2014 was not too kind to Sato Sumire until the arrival of the coupling song, “Ambulance”. She was transferred to SKE48 and she failed to rank in the 2014 Sousenkyo. This year, she has come back in a big way: as Future Girls center. I will also admit that I haven’t followed Suuchan as much as the average AKB48 and SKE48 fan, but I will say that she really blossomed at center in one of the best coupling songs in AKB48 history. Maybe it had to do with the nurse motif. Welcome back to Sousenkyo, Sato Sumire! A Round of Applause For Kojina Yui One of the biggest surprises, not only among HKT48 fans but also among HKT48 members, was the appearance of the punctual yet goofy Kojina Yui, ranking as high as Next Girls at #46. The thing is, the members who have no idea that they’ll rank end up with the best reactions (such as Tanabe Miku during the last election). Jiina was rather surprised ranking this high, evidenced by hyperventilation. All of her HKT48 comrades were rooting for her to start her speech. However, she needed the host to hold on to the microphone for a bit so she can take out a mirror to see if her makeup wasn’t smudged or anything. That alone was enough to capture the hearts of new fans. You go Jiina. Rock on with your goofy self! A Steady Vote Count Doesn’t Mean A Steady Rank Let’s look at the minimum amount of votes needed to rank this year: 13,116. Last year’s number was at 9,561. For some members, that meant if a certain member has a steady and consistent fan base willing to put in almost the same number of votes as last year, that certain member is very likely dropping a few spots. Even if the number of votes for a particular member has increased by a little bit (about 500-2,000 more votes than last year), that still does not mean that member is going to stay at the same rank as last year. Take into account Tano Yuka and Nagao Mariya, who received more votes than last year, however fell a few spots. This shows that the game is changing, and more votes are needed to allow a certain member to remain at a certain spot. SKE48 Fans Make A Statement Several members of SKE48 ranked for the first time, from Upcoming Girls (Kumazaki Haruka, Kitagawa Ryoha) to Undergirls (Tani Marika). You could also argue that the AKB48 vs. SKE48 rivalry has just heated up, given how more SKE48 members ranked this year compared to AKB48 members. Yes, SKE48 has 27 representatives in this election versus AKB48’s 23 representatives. And they did this without Matsui Rena. However, given that SKE48 had four members in senbatsu (just like last year), the group did not necessarily win this year’s election, despite the Sakae faithful voting in several new members. Home Field Helps This is the first time the AKB48 Senbatsu Sousenkyo took place in Fukuoka, where HKT48 is located. While SKE48 has more members rank in this election than anybody else, HKT48 members ranked but in a special way: three of them are centers for three lineups. Yes, Anai Chihiro is your Next Girls center while Kodama Haruka is your Undergirls center. Despite how only 15 HKT48 representatives made this year’s election, three of them are going to get the most screen time on the upcoming songs. Yes, I mentioned that three HKT48 members cracked the center spots, and one of them is Senbatsu center. Now it’s time to get into the Senbatsu takeaways, and there were plenty. Muto Tomu Is This Year’s Big Surprise In 2013, the big surprise ranking was when Shibata Aya made Undergirls center, beating Minegishi Minami to the punch. Last year, the big surprise ranking was when Matsumura Kaori made Undergirls center, beating Watanabe Miyuki to said spot. This year, Muto Tomu cracks the last Senbatsu spot, edging out Kodama Haruka for the spot. The reason I say this is the biggest surprise is because not a lot of people really predicted Tomu to make Senbatsu. This spot was usually predicted for members such as Kodama Haruka, Minegishi Minami, and Kizaki Yuria. Yet Tomu and her fans managed to edge all 3 out to clinch a Senbatsu berth. The Competition Is Way Too Fierce As predicted, Shimazaki Haruka, Yamamoto Sayaka, and Matsui Jurina all make senbatsu. All 3 of them received a whole lot more votes than last year, from 5,000 to 30,000. However, that did not translate to an increase in rank. Paruru fell down 2 spots out of Kami7 to 9th place. Jurina fell down a spot to 5th place even though she received over 14,000 votes more than last year. Sayanee received over 30,000 more votes than last year and still stuck at 6th place. This just begs the question: how many votes will it take to win the Sousenkyo pennant? Heartbreaking Yet Heartwarming This is Takahashi Minami’s final Sousenkyo election. Thus, a message to her fans was that she wanted to rank in first place, which would be a tremendous sendoff to one of the most influential AKB48 members in history. Unfortunately, while Takamina managed to crack the Kami7 lineup, she did not win the entire election; she placed 4th overall, her highest rank in Sousenkyo history. This is heartbreaking because Takamina does not have another chance at Sousenkyo center. While her rank was rather heartbreaking, there was a heartwarming cameo appearance right after. Maeda Atsuko, a former face of the AKB48 franchise, came to comfort Takamina right before she was about to sit down. For those of you who have been with AKB48 since its inception back in 2005, you would know that that was a big moment for fans of the franchise: this brings back the friendship between Acchan and Takamina (Atsumina) that has been around until Acchan graduated from the group. This was probably the most powerful moment of the entire Sousenkyo. While Takamina did not get her wish granted at the end of it all, it was nice to see Maeda Atsuko return to comfort an old friend. New Ways To Shock The World Since 2013, Watanabe Mayu has shocked people with her ranking on Sousenkyo. The 2013 year was the year most fans thought she would have won, but she ended up ranking 3rd behind Oshima Yuko and Sashihara Rino. In 2014, a lot of fans thought she would have lost to Sasshi, as evidenced by the preliminary results. Yet we all know how that turned out. This year, Mayuyu received about 15,000 more votes than last year, at 165,789 votes. This amount of votes was enough to win last year. This year, this amount of votes was only enough to secure third place. This also makes Watanabe Mayu the first ever Sousenkyo champion to rank lower than second the very next year. Even her fellow Team B comrade, Kashiwagi Yuki, beat Mayuyu by a little under 1,400 votes. Yes, Kashiwagi Yuki only secured second place with that ranking. That is just how fierce this competition was. Tough break Mayu… How to Break the Sousenkyo System
Remember when I said three HKT48 members managed to make the center spot for three separate units? One of them was Senbatsu, and Sashihara Rino once again claims the Sousenkyo pennant. This makes her the third 48G member to win twice and the first since Oshima Yuko. It also helps that this year’s Sousenkyo took place in Fukuoka, which means the HKT48 faithful came in droves. This was a lot better than 2013, where several 48G fans were leaving once Sasshi’s name was the last called. What makes this victory better than the surprise from 2013 was just how many votes Sashihara Rino received this time around: 194,049. Yes, one hundred ninety four thousand votes were given to Sasshi in order to win this year’s election. That’s almost one hundred thousand more than Yamamoto Sayaka. If you combine Matsui Jurina’s votes (105,289) and Miyawaki Sakura’s votes (81,422), those votes are still not enough to dethrone Sashihara Rino. This means that next year, a likely vote count of 200,000+ may be necessary to secure the #1 seed. This is how you break the voting system. Well, Sasshi did promise her fans a concert in a bikini, so... -Nathan (L4verra) As you may know, it is Sousenkyo season, which means it’s time to see the fans vote for their favorite member or members. For most fans, this is the time to show appreciation for their oshi and all the hard work they have accomplished throughout this past year. While some members may have more fans than others, there is always a warm feeling when a certain member ranks in Sousenkyo who hasn’t ranked for years. Remember when Tanabe Miku ranked for the first time, even though she has been on AKB48 since 2007? She felt amazed, shocked, but more importantly humble about ranking that she was brought to tears. If you’re a Tanamin-oshi, this gave you a sense of accomplishment and joy, seeing the member you support finally rank after all these years. Today, I wanted to share you a little story about my current AKB48 oshi, Minegishi Minami. This is an article explaining why she became my oshi in the first place, and a very important confession I have to make about her. Like Tanamin, Miichan has been a veteran for years now. She has been a part of AKB48 for almost 10 years, and she is the last remaining 1st generation member alongside Kojima Haruna and Takahashi Minami. Miichan is known for her skill on variety shows, her presence on the sub-units no3b (“No Sleeves” alongside Kojima Haruna and Takahashi Minami) and the now disbanded SONE (alongside Miyazaki Miho, Kitahara Rie and Sashihara Rino), and in recent years, she has been a captain for Team 4 and now Team K. She is also known for her spectacular dancing and singing skills. Basically, her resume on AKB48 is nothing short of amazing. However, let me tell you why she became my oshi in the first place. Besides the fact that she collects hats just like I do (I have 110+ New Era caps stuffed in my closet), there was something she did in the first quarter of 2013 that caught my attention. In January of 2013, Shukan Bunshun reported that Minegishi Minami was caught sleeping over at GENERATIONS from EXILE TRIBE’s Shirahama Alan’s apartment, thus breaking the “no dating” rule established by the management. She took the scandal to heart and, rather than shrugging it off, she shaved her head in penance. This in turn made news in media outlets not only in Japan, but around the entire world. The first time I spotted Minami Minegishi was after opening an article on Yahoo News titled: “Pop Star Shaves Head”. This was the first time I had seen a J-Pop star broken by one mistake. That said, to be 100% honest, the scandal is how she became my AKB48 oshi. Let me put it into perspective first. In early 2013, I was a die-hard Ebisu Muscats fan, and by no means an AKB48 fan. My oshi in that Muscats lineup was their youngest member, who was still one year older than I was. In early 2013, the only two AKB48 songs I knew were “Heavy Rotation” and “Aitakatta”. The Muscats just announced that they were disbanding at the end of March, so I needed a new group to pay attention to, or a new idol to pay attention to. While Kyary Pamyu Pamyu was helping me get through my J-Pop drought, this news story comes out and my first thought seeing Minegishi Minami was: “Even with the shaved head, this girl is still pretty cute”. Then I did a little research on who she was and what she has done on AKB48. That is when I started to like her even more. To be fair, the scandal came at a time where she had mental instability. With prior knowledge on the topic, I knew how Miichan felt at the time of the scandal. It didn’t help that when you searched her name on Google Images, the type of stuff some of the fans made wasn’t exactly kind. By late April, I was blasting almost all of the no3b set list. Miichan’s very own solo song, “Watashi wa Watashi” was something I played very often. I found myself enjoying her appearances while watching past AKBingo episodes and found that she was slowly becoming my 48G kami oshi. A year later, after being demoted to kenkyuusei because of the scandal, Minegishi Minami made it to the Team 4 lineup as captain, and became the only member in AKB48 history to be a part of every team (at the time), including Kenkyuusei. This was also a time where two groups were fulfilling my need for J-Pop: Nogizaka46 and NMB48. Then I meet a group of people who live in the Los Angeles area who like AKB48 and their related groups. When I started to collect photocards, whose did I collect? Miichan’s of course. 2014 was the year I paid attention to everything 48G. I found about and paid attention to members such as Watanabe Mayu, Watanabe Miyuki, Shiroma Miru, Miyawaki Sakura, Ichikawa Miori, Sashihara Rino, and the list goes on and on. Even up to now, I am paying attention to almost everybody in 48G, but the big question was: What about Miichan? Honestly, part of me forgot about what Miichan was up to. I was too busy paying attention to a whole lot of other members that I was close to smacking the oshihen button. This is what I meant by “important confession”. I was about to switch my all-time 48G kami oshi to someone who had several amazing gravure shots and had a knack for fishing her fans during handshakes. I was about to switch my 48G kami oshi from Minegishi Minami to Shiroma Miru. Don’t get me wrong, I like Miru an awful lot. In time, she became my NMB48 oshi, as I oshihenned from Yamagishi Natsumi to Miru. Really though, the entire reason she became my NMB48 oshi was because she was really, really damn attractive. Like, so damn attractive that she overtook Miichan for a while. Then Miru gets sent to AKB48 as a concurrent member, and then it was decision time: who is my kami oshi? After a week’s worth of thinking and with reasoning from my AKB48 SoCal friends, I eventually came back to my senses and stuck with Minegishi Minami. I mean, I was there during her darkest times back in 2013 and stuck with her then, so I probably shouldn’t give up on her now! So there’s my story about Minegishi Minami. Anything she does on 48G, from concerts, to variety show appearances, to the occasional Vine appearance, will sit well with me. But her election video for this year’s Sousenkyo struck a chord: Here, she claims that she wants to make the senbatsu lineup one last time. She also claims that some fans have been ashamed of having her as an oshi, and she wants the male fans to treat her like she is your girlfriend.
Wait…what? For starters, this is not January 2013. Yes, she probably lost a lot of fans, but her true fans stuck by her through thick and thin and probably forgot all about the scandal at this point. Yes, there are a few people who bring it up, but it is nothing to be ashamed of if you and the fans moved on from it. Yes, I was guilty of paying attention to Miru and a hell of a lot of other members. But I was never ashamed to be a Miichan oshi. Not one bit. Not back then, and certainly not now. That’s like Stephen Curry saying it’s challenging to be a Golden State Warriors fan. Or like Kyary Pamyu Pamyu claiming it is difficult to like her songs. I, as well as the other Minegishi Minami fans, will support her. Hell I know a few Miichan fans that live in North America and will stand by her no matter what the nay-sayers may say. I am sorry that I fell into the trap of oshihening because of Shiroma Miru, but that’s on me and not on her. Because of this, I will give Minegishi Minami my only vote in senbatsu. Yes, I only have one vote because I only bought one vote. Although I would like to support my kami oshi, I am not a type of person who wants to keep 30+ copies of the same CD (If I did that, I hope Goodwill likes AKB48). Also, I can’t go to Japan for handshake events. Not yet at least. One vote may make a difference between Next Girls center and the last spot for Undergirls. Given that she wanted to make senbatsu one last time, this convinced me that she will either not participate in the 2016 Sousenkyo, or she will graduate sometime this year or next year since Takamina is graduating this December. I have supported her for this long and yes, I did view her like a girlfriend. That’s what she wanted right? But I will give her my vote this year so I know that I contributed something to help her out in her time of Sousenkyo need. I do believe that senbatsu is an uphill climb, but maybe her last wish on what seems to be her last senbatsu can be fulfilled this one last time. If she announces graduation that June night, or if she remains the last 1st generation member, I will still support her on her journey through AKB48 and onward. Minegishi Minami, can you please visit Los Angeles again? I can give you some of my snapbacks! -Nathan (L4verra) We just had our first day of AKB48 Sousenkyo results, and only one word can describe exactly what the fans and the idols just witnessed: What. While the preliminary round of Sounsekyo should be taken with a grain of salt, there are plenty of takeaways for this one night alone. The preliminary round will not guarantee the final senbatsu lineup nor will it guarantee the winner, but let’s take a look at a few of the takeaways from this one night. Tani Marika is This Year’s Moriyasu Madoka Last year, Moriyasu Madoka placed 11th on the preliminary round, securing a spot in Undergirls when all was said and done. This year, Tani Marika placed 11th on the preliminary round, with 14,324 votes. If you place this high on the preliminary round, it is easy to say that you have clinched a spot in this year’s Sousenkyo. Last year, the minimum amount of votes needed to rank was 9,500, so Tani Marika will make Sousenkyo for the first time in her career. Senbatsu seems like a stretch, however Undergirls seems more realistic. A Push from Management Does Not Guarantee a Spot This really pains me to write because I am a Shiroma Miru fan (she is my NMB48 oshi now that Yamagishi Natsumi is long gone). But I did notice that Miru wasn’t the only one who did not rank in the preliminary round: no Kojima Mako, no Kawamoto Saya, no Nishino Miki, and no Anai Chihiro. Even members who did rank the past two years didn’t rank this time around: no Nagao Mariya, no Umeda Ayaka, no Ogasawara Mayu, etc. This does not mean that members listed here won’t rank. There is plenty of time for some of them to crack the Sousenkyo lineup. But this goes to show you that even if members get a push from management, a Sousenkyo spot is not as solidified as one might think. Look at last year’s final rankings. One of my favorite Team BII members, Shibuya Nagisa, was the first member to be promoted from kenkyuusei to 2 teams at the same time. She had the push from management. She did not rank when all was said and done. SKE48 Wins the Preliminary Round A lot of SKE48 members ranked in the preliminary round, most of whom did not rank at all last year. In total, 27 members from SKE48 ranked this round, only one shy of AKB48’s 28. Yes, these 3 members, Kamata Natsuki, Hidaka Yuzuki, and Kumazaki Haruka, all ranked somewhere. After SKE48 saw several members graduate in a short period of time, it is good to see that the fan base is still holding up strong, essentially giving these 6th generation members a chance to shine in an otherwise competitive Sousenkyo field. Also, SKE48 has 6 members in the preliminary Sousenkyo senbatsu. When all is said and done, I would not be surprised if the Nagoya faithful kept at least 4-5 members there. NMB48’s Turnout is Alarming I say alarming because there are members who have made it somewhere in the Sousenkyo ranking, at least for the past 2 years now. While I may say that there is still plenty of time to bring some of your favorite NMB48 members into Sousenkyo, that does not mean NMB48’s preliminary turnout was not alarming. NMB48 had only eight members rank in the preliminary round. Members such as Yoshida Akari, Ichikawa Miori, Kotani Riho, Umeda Ayaka, Fujie Reina, and of course Shiroma Miru, did not rank this time around. By the time the final results are revealed, perhaps NMB48 will have more members to represent their squad come June 6th, but these first day of results do seem pretty disheartening. When Yamamoto Sayaka is crying in frustration due to how bad the preliminary results were, you know that something is wrong. One Day of Prelims Can Throw Predictions out the Window I wrote my predictions article nearly hours before the preliminary results were released. Then they get released and my prediction to have Kizaki Yuria at 16th overall was thrown out the window. While the preliminary round can end up being horse you-know-what when all is said and done, seeing Yuria, Takajo Aki and my AKB48 oshi Minegishi Minami this low on the prelims is pretty disheartening. Last year, Yuria was at a healthy 24th place in prelims, while Miichan and Akicha placed 41st and 64th respectively. On that rainy night of Sousenkyo, all three of them ranked in the Undergirls lineup, so not all hope is lost. Basically, I would not be surprised if all three did manage to make Undergirls, or even if one of them can crack Senbatsu. But I would not be surprised if one of them fell to Next Girls or Future Girls. That is just how unpredictable the Sousenkyo can be. This Year’s Sousenkyo is Wide Open
Like I said in my Sousenkyo predictions article, this year really has no favorite to take the Sousenkyo pennant. Last year, Sashihara Rino was the overwhelming favorite, with a 12,000 vote cushion against Watanabe Mayu, but still lost on the final result by 10,000 votes. This year, Sasshi is still #1 in the preliminary round for the third straight time, but this year is different: she has about a 5,000 vote cushion against the #2 seed, Kashiwagi Yuki. There is so much intrigue with this year’s sousenkyo because any of these 4 idols could take the crown. Yukirin could win Sousenkyo in the name of AKB48 (and maybe NGT48 too?). Sasshi could win and be the 3rd 48G member since Oshima Yuko to win two Sousenkyo pennants. Mayuyu could be the first ever back-to-back Sousenkyo winner. Jurina could be the first ever Sousenkyo winner to represent SKE48. This is anybody’s race, which is what makes this year so exciting. Again, preliminary results in a competition like this should not be taken so seriously. Members who ranked now may not rank later. For example, last year Hirata Rina ranked in the preliminary round but ended up not ranking at all during that Sousenkyo night in June. A lot can change in the span of a few weeks. June 6th is going to be one wild and crazy night. -Nathan (L4verra) It’s that time of the year again, where fans from far and wide (but mostly in Japan) vote in their favorite members to rank in the senbatsu lineup for the upcoming AKB48 summer single. Yes, it’s Sousenkyo season once again! Now, as you can see from the title, this is a prediction post for the upcoming senbatsu (#1-16) lineup. That means that this is an opinion piece based on my observation of these 16 members throughout the latter half of 2014 up to now, and yes, there are members on this 16 member list I do not follow on a daily basis. Based on these predictions, your favorite member(s) may or may not make my senbatsu prediction lineup, so if you get mad at my predictions, I apologize in advance. Let me reiterate: this is an opinion piece. You ready? Well here we go. For my picks, I am going to go from #16 down to #1 at the end. This time, four senbatsu spots are open for new members, as Kojima Haruna, Matsui Rena, Ikoma Rina and Kawaei Rina sit this one out due to personal choice, ineligibility, or for missing the deadline to turn in the application. Regardless, here are my picks. I will also list the amount of times said member made senbatsu in previous elections. #16: Kizaki Yuria (AKB48 Team B, 0x Senbatsu) A year ago today, the 48G fandom was shocked to see Kizaki Yuria permanently transferred to AKB48. Over a year has passed and Yuria has carved out a nice niche among the AKB48 lineup. Team B is hers to lead, she recently released a photobook, and she has had starring roles in Majisuka Gakuen 4 and Tatakau! Shoten Girl. She got a lot done this past year or so, which very likely translates to more votes and the 16th seed. If she does not make senbatsu this time around, she will have plenty of opportunities. I do predict that Kizaki Yuria will barely edge out Shibata Aya for the last sousenkyo spot, as Shibata Aya falls to Undergirls center. #15: Kodama Haruka (HKT48 Team H/AKB48 Team K, 0x Senbatsu) Yes, this is the first time Kodama Haruka will make senbatsu. Basically I am looking at this year’s Sousenkyo in this standpoint: HKT48 is rising tremendously, as last year’s Sousenkyo showing proved just that (several members jumped some 10-40+ spots in the rankings, and 2 HKT48 members made senbatsu). This trend will continue this year, and the arguably third face of the HKT48 franchise makes senbatsu. It also helps if you have centered the last 2 HKT48 singles. #14: Watanabe Miyuki (NMB48 Team BII/AKB48 Team B, 1x Senbatsu) Last time Watanabe Miyuki made senbatsu was in 2013, where she placed 15th. Then in 2014, a scandal somewhat weighed her down and she fell three spots to undergirls. This year, she has a clear shot to come back to senbatsu. She was the winner of the 2014 Janken Tournament, defeating Kojima Haruna to claim her very own single. There is not a lot that can stop Milky this time around unless she gets into another scandal. Besides, NMB48 needs one more member in senbatsu to represent the group, and no, Kashiwagi Yuki didn’t really count. #13: Matsumura Kaori (SKE48 Team KII, 0x Senbatsu) Last year’s surprise showing to give Matsumura Kaori the Undergirls center position was nothing short of…well, surprising. This time around, now that there are four spots available for members to move in, this trend may continue again and we may see the “forever 17”, “honorary Kenkyuusei” Matsumura Kaori in senbatsu. Whether you love her or hate her, I don’t see a lot stopping her from making senbatsu, especially when there are photos circulating around the interwebs of Kaotan fans and their stockpiles of CDs used for voting. Perhaps she will bring her camcorder with her again… #12: Miyazawa Sae (SKE48 Team S/SNH48 Team SII, 6x Senbatsu) Yes, Miyazawa Sae will make it for the 7th straight time. While I do not follow Miyazawa Sae (or SNH48 for that matter…) as much as I should, I am well aware of how big the Miyazawa Sae fanbase is, and it does not look like it will let up this year either. There is a reason Sae has never dropped out of senbatsu, and she will not drop out this time around either. She did release a photobook which will help out with votes as well. #11: Kitahara Rie (NGT48 Team NIII, 4x Senbatsu) Some of you may think that this ranking is way too high, but I have Kitahara Rie to clinch the 11th seed. I say that because of how much she is willing to offer to AKB48. After an emotional confession, revealing that she may not have a lot to offer to the franchise anymore, she was given the opportunity to move to the next sister group in NGT48. Basically, she is doing what Sashihara Rino is doing with HKT48 (albeit without a scandal). She is the leader of the franchise and will lead her fellow Niigata girls into the spotlight. Perhaps Niigata-based 48G fans can help vote her into senbatsu? #10: Yokoyama Yui (AKB48 Team A, 4x Senbatsu) Yokoyama Yui clinches the 10th seed. She got this far after years of hard work and determination, and time and time again such hard work has paid off. This will be Yuihan’s highest ranking in the Sousenkyo election, and it’s in part from a few things: having a major role in Majisuka Gakuen 4, releasing a photobook, and making every senbatsu lineup for every AKB48 single this past year. It also helps your votes if you are named the AKB48 Soukantoku (General Manager) after Takahashi Minami graduates. #9: Suda Akari (SKE48 Team E, 2x Senbatsu) Suda Akari makes senbatsu once again. From what I hear, Dasu’s handshakes are some of the best in all of SKE48, as she has a ton of energy and character if you do meet her for a handshake event. This translated to a rise in voting, as Dasu’s rank has gone higher and higher with every Sousenkyo, and this year that trend is likely to continue. Hopefully Suda Akari does not have an acceptance speech that is 30 minutes in duration… #8: Miyawaki Sakura (HKT48 Team KIV/AKB48 Team A, 1x Senbatsu) Oh boy, this is where the ranking will start to get difficult…but yes Miyawaki Sakura jumps up to the 8th seed. Think of all that Sakura has done this past year: she was a lead in Majisuka Gakuen 4, she was the first ever HKT48 member to dual center an AKB48-based single and she has a frequent line of gravure photos on your everyday Young Animal issue. Even with the impressive resume this past year, Sakura remains one spot shy of the Kami7 (#1-7 rankings). I say this because one could argue that any of the Kami7 members could win Sousenkyo, simply from their magnitude alone. I will say this: Sakura is still young. At age 17, she will have plenty of opportunities to crack Kami7, or maybe even win. She is still developing as an idol and is already this high. The future is bright for this young lady. #7: Shimazaki Haruka (AKB48 Team A, 2x Senbatsu) Yes, one of the faces of the beloved 9th gen of AKB48 makes it into Kami7 at the 7th seed. Being the center of the single used to vote (“Bokutachi wa Tatakawanai”) will help your cause, and being one of the leads for Majisuka Gakuen 4 helps as well. But we know that Paruru has her fair share of AKB48 fans, mainly because they have seen how she has grown from a rather shy and salty persona to someone who can open up to her fans and her fellow Team A members. She has become not only one of the faces of the 9th generation, but of AKB48 as a whole. #6: Yamamoto Sayaka (NMB48 Team N/AKB48 Team K, 2x Senbatsu) When I said this part of the predictions was difficult, this is what I had in mind. Yes, I have Yamamoto Sayaka at 6th. The truth is, I don’t even know where to put Sayanee… Yes, she will make Kami7 and there is no doubt about that. You can say that she released an amazing photobook. You can say that she outsold her handshake tickets in a single day. You can say that Yamada Nana’s votes have to go somewhere. But at the end of the day, there is a rhyme or reason for the members ahead of Sayanee to rank as high as they can. Don’t get me wrong, I love Sayanee: I think she is a fantastic musician, one of the funniest idols in the business, and she has amazing gravure photos (even though I know she doesn’t feel comfortable with the gravure). But again, there is rhyme and reason behind the 5 remaining spots of Kami7. I will say this: like Shimazaki Haruka, Yamamoto Sayaka could dark horse her way into the #1 seed, and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if she did win. #5: Takahashi Minami (AKB48 Team A, 6x Senbatsu) This is what I meant by “rhyme and reason to win Sousenkyo”. Yes, I have Takahashi Minami at the 5th seed. What more can be said of the current general manager of AKB48: she is the heart and soul of the franchise, she is one of the 3 remaining 1st generation members, and she shows support towards her fellow members whenever they need a helping hand. She is the true definition of a leader. Why she ranks this high is because this is her last Sousenkyo, and she wants to end her final run with a center position. Normally she would be okay with a Kami7 spot while her fellow members all aim for the top, but this year is different. She is calling for her fans to help her out this one final time. However, Takamina has never ranked higher than 5th overall. Winning it all is going to be a challenge, but wouldn’t it be a perfect sendoff to one of the most powerful leaders of the franchise? #4: Kashiwagi Yuki (AKB48 Team B/NGT48 Team NIII, 6x Senbatsu) The “idol of idols” makes the 4th seed on this year’s Sousenkyo, dropping one spot from last year. Yes, every year, Kashiwagi Yuki ranks high and sells out handshake events with a drop of a hat. Management may not like her, but the fans sure do. She has had a few solo concerts, she has amazing gravure photoshoots, I mean, what’s not to like? I do find the NGT48 kennin rather questionable, but that’s just me. Like Kitahara Rie, maybe the Niigata-based AKB48 faithful may chip in a few votes? More votes do not hurt especially how Yukirin is likely to receive over 100,000 votes like last year. #3: Watanabe Mayu (AKB48 Team B, 6x Senbatsu) It pains me to put Watanabe Mayu this low on my prediction list, because she is one of my favorite AKB48 members (third to only Minegishi Minami and Shiroma Miru). But I have a specific reason why Mayuyu ranks at 3rd. Simply put, she won already. She took down the metaphorical Goliath in Sashihara Rino last year, and Mayuyu really doesn’t have much to prove with Sousenkyo anymore. She could win again and that would be fine and dandy with me, but I have a very strong feeling that her fans have accomplished what they wanted to accomplish: seeing Mayuyu clinch the center spot. Yes, she has had an exhausting, busy past few months, with her Tatakau! Shoten Girl drama and with her AKB48 based activities (such as handshakes). There’s also the fact that no one has ever repeated as winner of Sousenkyo, so Mayuyu has odds to defy. Because of this, her votes may be lower than what they were last year, but she’ll still crack 100,000. #2: Matsui Jurina (SKE48 Team S/AKB48 Team K, 6x Senbatsu) Originally I had Matsui Jurina to win the whole thing this year, but due to what I have seen from the last member, I could not do that. Simply put, those of you who were used to seeing WMatsui (Matsui Jurina and Matsui Rena) in the Sousenkyo lineup will be disappointed, as Matsui Rena decided to sit this year’s election out. Thus, a surplus of votes is available, and SKE48 fans may go with the other Matsui of that lineup in Jurina. She holds the record for most Senbatsu appearances across AKB48 and SKE48 singles, her Janken single got #1 in the 1035-song request hour, and she is still only 18. Even though she is a veteran of SKE48/AKB48 for some 6.5 years, she still has a bright future ahead. She will crack at least 130,000 votes this year, and like every member I named in my Kami7, it would not surprise me if she clinched the #1 seed. #1: Sashihara Rino (HKT48 Team H, 5x Senbatsu)
So you might be wondering, why do I have Sashihara Rino as the potential #1 seed? One simple reason: This is a revenge year for Sashihara Rino and her fans. Why I say that is because, well, Sasshi lost to Mayuyu by a margin of 10,000 votes. Given that I predicted Mayuyu’s votes to drop off a little bit compared to last year, all Sasshi needs now are over 140,000 votes to secure the #1 seed. You might see a Mayuyu/Sasshi rivalry spring in the future (much like how Maeda Atsuko and Oshima Yuko went back and forth during past Sousenkyo elections). I have Sasshi beating Jurina by a large margin of votes (about 5-6,000) to secure the Sousenkyo pennant. Plus, it also helps that Sasshi would do a concert in a bikini should she win this year. These are my predictions. By the time you read this, the preliminary results for voting should be out, and while those results will give us a good indication on who will make senbatsu, it does not mean that the #1 seed in the prelims will be the #1 seed when all is said and done. Last year, Sasshi went over 10,000 votes over Mayuyu in the preliminary round. Look what happened there. Overall, these are predictions I made that are rather safe and free from oshi-tinted glasses. Because if I really wanted to make predictions, I would have Minegishi Minami and Shiroma Miru in senbatsu, Ichikawa Miori and Tani Marika in undergirls, and Watanabe Mayu winning it all with 250,000 votes. It is likely that none of this will happen. So who do you predict will make senbatsu? What are your thoughts on my predictions? Let us know in the comments below. See y’all June 6th! -Nathan (L4verra) Today, the senbatsu lineup for the 12th Nogizaka46 single has been revealed. There are some good things about the lineup and some bad things about it. Matsui Rena is no longer a part of the lineup, which means a senbatsu spot for a new member is open. Who will be the one who takes it? Who is your 12th single center? Who falls out of senbatsu? Let’s take a look. This is what your back row looks like. Just like last time, a new 2nd generation member gets a spot at senbatsu. This time, it’s your office-lady/barista/model idol Shinuchi Mai! Big ups to Maichun for securing a senbatsu spot! As for the rest of the lineup, fan favorites from the undergirls lineup, such as Saito Yuuri and Inoue Sayuri come back to senbatsu. Overall this back row lineup looks the same as the 11th single, with someone missing. This is the first time Hori Miona did not make senbatsu. This is a bit of a problem because this shows that just because you have been center for a single before, doesn’t mean that you are guaranteed to be in senbatsu forever (see “Barette”). I personally did not like seeing Miona gone. Yes she did not start as one of my favorite members when she became center (At the time I was like: “Wait, who’s that? Why are you center?!”). As time went on though, she somehow grew on me and has become a member that I like. I am probably not the only one like this; Miona has been well received by a lot of Nogizaka46 fans. To see her fail to make senbatsu is pretty disheartening, but she can lead the undergirls lineup alongside Nakamoto Himeka and continue to do amazing things. This is the 2nd row. This looks nearly identical to the 11th single, but this time Takayama Kazumi makes the 10-member Fukujin lineup, rather than the back row. So if you are a Kazumin fan, you’re in luck. Here’s your first row, which consists of the five faces of the franchise. There are some interesting points to mention though. First of all, Shiraishi Mai is not your center; she got moved to the side of the 1st row. After getting snubbed several times for center, now she just got moved to the side; you can’t help but to feel bad. Shiraishi Mai WANTS to be center and this is yet another round where management chooses otherwise. But maybe she can be center for the 13th single. There is always next time.
Yes, Ikoma Rina is your 12th single center. After her stint on AKB48, I see this more as a test from management to see if she learned anything during said stint. She has been center before, so let’s see if she can make this 12th single really sparkle. She’s done it before (see “Seifuku no Mannequin”) so I believe she can do it again. Also, big ups to Hashimoto Nanami for making the 1st row! So there you have it. This is your senbatsu lineup for the 12th single. Yes, it does look more solidified if anything, and it doesn’t seem like much will be changed in the 13th single (maybe Sasaki Kotoko replaces Shinuchi Mai, but that’s really all I can say). This isn’t a bad lineup by any means. But maybe this is just me, a Wada Maaya fan, being rather salty about another senbatsu lineup she didn’t make. I guess, so long as Saito Asuka is in senbatsu, Maaya has no chance. Oh well. At least Maaya can teach her fellow members English or something. -Nathan (L4verra) As AKB48 revealed the cover photos for their “Green Flash” single, and as SKE48 takes out the big guns at center for their senbatsu lineup, NMB48 is in the news giving one of their marquee members a final sendoff at center. There is also Yamamoto Sayaka’s new photobook out which may give you high blood pressure or nosebleeds just by looking at some of the photos, but that is a story for another day. Yes, Yamada Nana is your center for the next NMB48 single! After her song with Yamamoto Sayaka, “Tomodachi”, made 2nd place during the last Request Hour, she gets one more send off at center, the 5th of NMB48’s history to ever center a single. The other four past centers were Yamamoto Sayaka, Watanabe Miyuki, Shiroma Miru and Yagura Fuuko, all of whom make this senbatsu lineup. Like with every senbatsu, someone new makes the lineup to round out the 23-girl roster. Congratulations to Sutou Ririka and Ota Yuuri for making the senbatsu lineup for the first time! But someone else makes senbatsu for the first time, and this member is pretty popular among some of my friends back at the AKB48 SoCal Fan Club. Kusaka Konomi makes senbatsu for the first time! Let me get some of my friends to explain who Konomin is (shout out to Tenkei and Boy from basugasubakuhatsu!): As for kennin members who did not make it, as expected, Takayanagi Akane does not make senbatsu. This is most likely a response to SKE48 releasing their single the same day as NMB48 (which is why Yamada Nana and Watanabe Miyuki fail to make SKE48’s senbatsu). Unfortunately, for you HKT48 fans, your favorite Russian/Japanese idol fails to make the lineup. No Murashige Anna this time around…this is the 2nd time she gets snubbed from an NMB48 senbatsu. It sucks because she is my HKT48 oshi, but that too is a story for another day. Here are the other members who make senbatsu. You have the kennin members either based from AKB48 (such as Kashiwagi Yuki), members who have a kennin with AKB48 based from NMB48 (such as Shibuya Nagisa and Kotani Riho), members permanently transferred from AKB48 to NMB48 (such as Fujie Reina, Ichikawa Miori and Umeda Ayaka), you have the mainstay members who very likely do not fall out of senbatsu (such as Yoshida Akari and Jonishi Kei), and you have the up and coming members who make senbatsu once and never fall out of it (like Nishimura Aika). In terms of NMB48, there’s a podcast that makes the group more accessible to people outside of Japan, called Takoyaki Party. Shout out to Osaka Joe and DJ Soymilk from the AKB48 SoCal Fan Club who have done an amazing job with NMB48-based podcasts! So there you have it. NMB48’s senbatsu looks like a fantastic way to give one of their most famous members, Yamada Nana, a perfect sendoff. The title of the single is “Don’t Look Back!” Here is a sneak peek: Excited?
-Nathan (L4verra) Let’s start with the bad news first before we get to the good part. We touched earlier on SKE48 graduations and how they seem to be happening in waves. Throw in Kobayashi Ami’s name among those graduating because her graduation announcement came right before we published the article…that’s just really bad timing on our part. With that said, best wishes to Kobayashi Ami, who will graduate in March. You were one of the smartest SKE48 girls we ever knew… Now for the good news: SKE48 has announced their senbatsu for their upcoming single which is to be released the same day as NMB48’s latest single. And look who’s back to lead the lineup: These two are your centers once again. Both of them made the senbatsu lineup for Green Flash, and here they are again leading the lineup for SKE48’s new single. Welcome back WMatsui! Other than Jurina and Rena centering an SKE48 single once again, the other members of this 21-member senbatsu consist of both mainstay members and a few new ones. As for the new members, three of them make the senbatsu lineup for the first time: Ego Yuna, Isohara Kyoka, and Goudo Saki punch their ticket into senbatsu for the first time. Congrats! There were also other surprises as well. Unfortunately, Watanabe Miyuki does not make the senbatsu lineup. There’s still NMB48 for her, which is a guaranteed senbatsu spot if not double center with Yamamoto Sayaka. Besides, NMB48 does release their single the same day as SKE48, so a rivalry has to commence somehow, right? There was yet another surprise senbatsu announcement: your favorite forever-17-year-old kenkyuusei made the lineup. Yes, Matsumura Kaori makes the senbatsu lineup. After nearly making it last year during sousenkyo, Kaotan gets another chance to shine in senbatsu since "Kiss Datte Hidarikiki".
Here is the full lineup: Center: Matsui Jurina, Matsui Rena Senbatsu: Azuma Rion, Ego Yuna, Furuhata Nao, Futamura Haruka, Goudo Saki, Isohara Kyoka, Kimoto Kanon, Kitagawa Ryoha, Matsumura Kaori, Miyamae Ami, Miyazawa Sae, Oba Mina, Oya Masana, Sato Sumire, Shibata Aya, Souda Sarina, Suda Akari, Takayanagi Akane, Tani Marika Who do you think got snubbed out? -Nathan (L4verra) |
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February 2024
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